Turkey: Erdoğan's Post-Corona, Existential Economic Challenge
by Burak Bekdil • 
- Before the coronavirus, Turkey hoped its tourism revenues might reach as high as $45 billion this year. But in the first quarter of the year, the number of passengers traveling through Turkish airports fell by 18.8%, and the second quarter does not look promising. Economists agree that the year-end decline will be even sharper.
- This is where alarm bells ring for Erdoğan. Turks are scheduled to go to the ballot box again in 2023 to elect the president and members of parliament.
- Erdoğan owes his spectacular election victories, uninterrupted since 2002, in large part to rapid economic growth and the subsequent improvement in the standard of living. A reversal now could end his glittering political career.
- Erdoğan remains the potential victim of a small virus.
Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan widely owes his spectacular election victories, uninterrupted since 2002, in large part to rapid economic growth and the subsequent improvement in the standard of living. A reversal now could end his glittering political career. Pictured: Erdoğan speaks at a press conference addressing the coronavirus crisis in Ankara, Turkey on March 18, 2020. (Photo by Adem Altan/AFP via Getty Images)
We may be months away from Covid-19's global peak but the punishing, global, post-pandemic economic repercussions will vary from one country to another, depending on what economic vulnerabilities the pandemic has caught off-guard. One anticipated outcome is to see bigger post-corona damage to economies that have a large dependence on tourism and on economies with fundamental imbalances. Turkey belongs in both categories.
In the early days of the virus, before the skyrocketing number of cases, Turkey's fragile economy boasted 4.3 million jobless. The official unemployment rate was 13.8%.
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